Singapore New Launch Break-Even Prices 2026: Land Cost vs Launch Price

The answer: Eight 2026 new launches on government land sale (GLS) sites were priced about 6% to 34% above our estimate of the developer's break-even. The narrowest gap was Narra Residences (6% to 12%) and the widest Dunearn House (29% to 34%). Break-even is the URA or HDB land price plus S$930–1,030 psf of other costs, based on DBS Research.

Published 16 October 2026. Every land price links to the URA award release or, for Pinery Residences, HDB's list of sites sold. Break-even figures are SG Properties estimates, not developer figures. Download the table as JSON; you may reuse it with a link to this page.

Land cost vs launch price: the 2026 table

Land price psf ppr is the tender price divided by the maximum permissible gross floor area (GFA) in the award release, converted at 10.7639 sq ft per sq m (our calculation; each matches the figure on our project page). Break-even is land price plus S$930–1,030 psf. The gap percentage is the gap divided by the break-even figure it was taken from. The launch price is the measure named in each cell; it is not the same measure for every project. The date after each land price is when URA or HDB announced the award.

*Sing Holdings disclosed stamp duties on the Chuan Grove land equal to about S$149 psf ppr (SGX, 16 April 2026; see our Chuan Grove page for the working). If the non-land range does not already cover them, break-even would be up to about S$150 psf higher.

What does the table show?

• Seven of the eight launched projects were priced at least 14% above our break-even estimate. Narra Residences is the exception, at 6% to 12% above.
• The two Bukit Timah and Holland launches had the largest gaps in dollars. Dunearn House (S$700–800 psf) and Amberwood at Holland (S$557–657 psf) paid the highest land prices in the table, but also launched at the highest prices.
• A low land price did not mean a low margin. Tengah Garden Residences had the cheapest land in the table (S$821 psf ppr) and the lowest launch average (S$2,120 psf), and its gap (15% to 21%) was among the narrowest, level with Lucerne Grand's (15% to 20%).
• The two unlaunched sites start from high land costs. At S$1,330 and S$1,355 psf ppr, the Bedok Rise and Chuan Grove sites have estimated break-evens of about S$2,260–2,385 psf. Neither developer has released prices, and we do not estimate them.

How we estimate break-even

A developer's break-even is the land cost plus construction, financing, fees and taxes. Developers do not publish theirs, so we use one sourced cost range for every project, the same method as our Lucerne Grand review:

1. Land cost (psf ppr). URA's or HDB's tender price divided by the maximum gross floor area in the award release.
2. Non-land costs: S$930–1,030 psf. DBS Research (analyst Tabitha Foo, 28 October 2024) estimated a total development cost of S$2.4–2.5 billion for the Thomson View en bloc site, "including land betterment, construction costs", and a break-even of about S$2,100–2,200 psf, on a land cost it put at S$1,172 psf ppr (DBS). DBS's figures imply about S$930–1,030 psf of non-land costs (S$2,100 − S$1,172 and S$2,200 − S$1,172, rounded). Costs may have risen since then.
3. Break-even = land cost + non-land costs. We add no developer profit. The gap between the launch price and break-even is the room a developer has for profit, cost overruns and later discounts; it is not the developer's profit.

RLB's construction rates exclude land, legal and professional fees, development charges, authority fees, finance costs, show flats and GST, and are measured per sq m of construction floor area, which includes covered car parks that do not count as GFA. So they are not directly comparable with a cost per sq ft of GFA. They show that building costs are only part of the non-land range; the rest covers items such as financing, fees, stamp duty and marketing.

Every break-even on this page is an SG Properties estimate, not a developer figure. Actual costs depend on construction tenders, financing and the saleable area achieved.

What the estimate does not capture

• One cost range for every site. The DBS range comes from one large site in Upper Thomson in 2024. A low-rise project such as Amberwood at Holland, or a project with a mall such as Pinery Residences, may cost more or less to build per sq ft.
• Mixed-use sites. The land prices for Pinery Residences, Lucerne Grand and Hudson Place Residences cover their shops as well as the homes, because URA and HDB quote one price for the whole GFA.
• Different price measures. Most launch prices are launch-weekend averages of units sold. Lucerne Grand's S$2,480 psf is CDL's average across the whole project, and Amberwood at Holland's average covers only 23 units. Averages of units sold move as later phases are released.
• Floor area. We compare prices per sq ft of saleable area with costs per sq ft of permissible GFA, as the DBS estimate does. If the saleable area differs from the GFA, break-even per sq ft changes.
• Stamp duties and land charges. Developers pay stamp duty on the land. Chuan Grove's developers disclosed theirs; the others did not, so we rely on the DBS range to cover them.

Thomson Reserve: the en bloc benchmark

Thomson Reserve is on a private en bloc site, not a government land sale, so there is no URA or HDB award release for its land price. DBS's estimate was made for this site, so we show DBS's own figure rather than our formula.

Thomson Reserve's sales launch is on 31 October 2026. Because S$2,608 psf is the lowest starting price, the average of units sold is likely to be higher, which would widen the gap.

Which launches are not in the table?

• Executive condominiums, such as Rivelle Tampines. EC prices are shaped by eligibility rules and grants, and our cost range comes from a private condo site.
• The Serra Residences, a freehold site Far East Organization bought in 2010. A break-even would need 16 years of holding costs that are not published.
• Other 2026 launches we have not yet reviewed, such as Lentor Gardens Residences and River Modern. We will add them once we publish reviewed pages on them.

We will add each new GLS launch when its prices are released, and update the table when the developer or URA caveat data give a better average.

FAQ

What is a developer's break-even price?

It is the selling price per square foot at which a developer recovers the land cost plus construction, financing, fees and taxes, with no profit. Developers do not publish it, so analysts and sites such as ours estimate it from the land price.

How is the land price psf ppr calculated?

It is the land price divided by the maximum gross floor area allowed on the site ("per plot ratio"). For government land sales, URA publishes the tender price and the price per square metre of GFA, and HDB the tender price and the permissible GFA; we convert to square feet at 10.7639 sq ft per sq m.

Which 2026 launch had the smallest gap over break-even?

Narra Residences at Dairy Farm Walk. Its launch-weekend average of S$2,180 psf was about 6% to 12% above our break-even estimate of S$1,950–2,050 psf.

Does a large gap mean the developer is making a large profit?

Not necessarily. The gap must also cover any costs above our range, such as a more expensive design, higher financing or a slower sell-down, and developers pay tax on profits. It shows how much room there is above our estimate, not the developer's actual profit.

Will developers cut prices towards break-even?

We do not forecast prices. The gap shows how far prices could, in principle, fall before a project would sell below our cost estimate. Actual pricing depends on demand, competition and how many units remain unsold.

Can I reuse this data?

Yes. The table is available as JSON. Please credit SG Properties with a link to this page.

Sources

• URA, tender award for the sites at Dairy Farm Walk and Tengah Garden Avenue, 21 January 2025: ura.gov.sg
• HDB, mixed commercial and residential sites sold, including Tampines Street 94 (awarded 10 October 2024): hdb.gov.sg (PDF)
• URA, tender award for the site at Media Circle (Parcel A), 13 March 2025: ura.gov.sg
• URA, tender award for the site at Bayshore Road, 28 March 2025: ura.gov.sg
• URA, tender award for the site at Lakeside Drive, 9 June 2025: ura.gov.sg
• URA, tender award for the site at Dunearn Road, 3 July 2025: ura.gov.sg
• URA, tender award for the site at Chuan Grove, 17 July 2025: ura.gov.sg
• URA, tender award for the site at Holland Link, 7 August 2025: ura.gov.sg
• URA, tender award for the second site at Chuan Grove, 10 September 2025: ura.gov.sg
• URA, tender award for the site at Bedok Rise, 2 December 2025: ura.gov.sg
• DBS Research (Tabitha Foo), note on UOL Group and the Thomson View collective sale, 28 October 2024: dbs.com.sg
• Rider Levett Bucknall, Rider's Digest 2025, Singapore edition (construction costs as at first quarter 2025): rlb.com
• Sing Holdings, response to queries on the FY2025 annual report (SGX), 16 April 2026: sgx.com
• Launch prices: EdgeProp, Sunway MCL, Hong Leong Holdings, CDL and CapitaLand, linked in the tables above

SG Properties is an independent research site, not a developer or an estate agency. This page explains costs and prices; it is not advice to buy or sell any property.