Unsold Private Homes Hit 15-Quarter Low: What Shrinking Supply Means for Singapore Prices

Singapore's unsold private residential pipeline has contracted to its tightest level since mid-2022, with just 14,859 units sitting unsold at the end of Q4 2025. That number — released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) — marks the sixth consecutive quarterly decline and raises a critical question for 2026: when supply shrinks this quickly, what happens to prices?

The Supply Compression Story in Numbers

The headline figure of 14,859 unsold units (including executive condominiums) represents a 23% decline from the Q1 2024 peak of approximately 19,300 units. Breaking it down:

• Outside Central Region (OCR): ~6,200 units unsold (down from ~9,500 in early 2024)
• Rest of Central Region (RCR): ~5,100 units unsold
• Core Central Region (CCR): ~3,500 units unsold
• Executive Condominiums: ~900 units remaining

The contraction is sharpest in the OCR, which historically serves the mass-market upgrader segment. With fewer new launches replacing sold-down inventory, existing projects now have significantly more pricing power.

For context, Singapore's "equilibrium" supply range is generally considered to be around 15,000–18,000 unsold units. At 14,859 units, Singapore has now crossed below that lower bound for the first time since Q2 2022.

Why Supply Has Contracted So Sharply

1. Government Land Sales (GLS) Pacing

The URA and HDB have deliberately moderated the GLS programme since 2023. In H2 2025, the Confirmed List offered approximately 5,450 private residential units — a 15% reduction from H2 2024's 6,385 units.

2. Strong Sales Velocity at New Launches

Despite ABSD rates remaining elevated (20% for Singapore PRs, 60% for foreigners buying second properties), local demand has been robust. The OCR mega-launches of 2024–2025 — including Parktown Residence (1,193 units, 88% sold by Q3 2025) and Aurelle of Tampines EC (760 units) — absorbed supply faster than new launches could replace it.

3. Developer Launch Timing

Developers who purchased land in 2020–2021 have largely sold through their inventories. New land parcels acquired at higher prices are being launched more cautiously.

What Happens When Supply Falls Below 15,000 Units

The last time Singapore's unsold inventory dipped to comparable levels was Q2–Q3 2022 (approximately 14,100–14,900 units), a period that immediately preceded a sharp acceleration in private property prices. URA's private residential price index rose approximately 8.6% in 2022.

However, 2026 faces a more complex backdrop:

• ABSD rates remain high, suppressing foreign demand
• Mortgage rates at 3.5%–4.0% constrain purchasing power
• HDB resale prices have plateaued slightly

Impact by Market Segment

OCR (Mass Market): New OCR launches in 2026 are expected at $1,900–$2,200 psf — a premium of 15–20% over 2023 comparables.

RCR (Mid-Market): Prices expected to hold firm at $2,300–$2,800 psf for new launches.

CCR (Luxury): CCR supply has improved slightly. Buyers in the $4M+ bracket may find more negotiating room.

Executive Condominiums: With only ~900 EC units unsold, buyers should expect the next EC launch to price at $1,550–$1,650 psf, up from Aurelle's $1,420–$1,480 psf.

GLS Pipeline: More Supply Is Coming, But Not Immediately

There is an 18–24 month lag between land award and unit availability:

• Sites awarded in H1 2025 will produce approximately 3,200 new units, launching mostly in H2 2026 to H1 2027
• Sites awarded in H2 2025 add another ~2,800 units to the 2027–2028 pipeline
• The next major supply wave will only reach the market from late 2026 onwards

Investment Implications for 2026

1. The window for below-peak OCR entry is narrowing. The sub-$1,700 psf opportunity that existed in 2023 has largely closed.

2. Resale market is the beneficiary. Buyers who previously bypassed resale for new launches may turn to resale, supporting prices in well-located OCR and RCR projects near MRT interchanges.

3. HDB resale demand remains anchored. Million-dollar HDB transactions are likely to continue in 2026 (February 2026 alone saw 122 such deals).

4. Developers hold pricing power. With unsold inventory this low, there is no pressure on developers to offer discounts.

Conclusion

Singapore's private residential market enters 2026 in a structurally tight supply position. The 14,859 unsold units at end-Q4 2025 sit below the analyst consensus for price-neutral supply levels, and the GLS pipeline will only deliver meaningful new inventory from late 2026 at earliest.

For buyers, waiting for prices to correct on supply grounds is not supported by the data. The rental market continues to deliver 3.5%–4.5% gross yields in well-chosen OCR locations.

---

Data sourced from URA REALIS, HDB Annual Report 2025, and Knight Frank Singapore Q4 2025 Market Outlook.