The Singapore property market began 2026 in a state best described as "stable resilience." After the turbulence of the April 2023 cooling measure enhancements — which drove a sharp spike in ABSD and caused immediate transaction volume declines — the market spent 2024 and most of 2025 absorbing the shock. By Q1 2026, prices have broadly held, volumes have stabilised, and developer activity is measured but healthy.
This analysis covers the key data points from URA, HDB, and JLL/CBRE tracking across the three major property segments.
Private Residential: URA Price Index
The URA Private Residential Property Price Index closed Q4 2025 approximately 3–4% higher than Q4 2024, marking a moderation from the 8–10% annual gains seen during 2021–2022. Breaking this down by region:
Core Central Region (CCR)
- Price change (Q4 2024 to Q4 2025): +1.5% to +2.5%
- CCR has been the weakest segment due to absence of foreign demand (60% ABSD) and price-sensitive local buyers
- High-end luxury units (above S$5M) showed divergence: trophy units transacted well; mid-CCR condo segment was sluggish
Rest of Central Region (RCR)
- Price change: +3.5% to +4.5%
- RCR has been the strongest performer — benefiting from the flight from CCR and the price premium buyers are willing to pay for better location vs mass market
- Tanjong Pagar, Queenstown, and Buona Vista sub-markets performed particularly well
Outside Central Region (OCR)
- Price change: +3.0% to +4.0%
- Driven by HDB upgrader demand and new launches
- Tampines, Jurong East, and Sengkang sub-markets saw above-average activity
Transaction Volumes: Recovering but Not Euphoric
Developer new sales (primary market) for full-year 2025 are estimated at approximately 6,800–7,200 units — a recovery from the 2024 trough of ~6,200 units but below the 2021 peak of ~13,000 units.
Resale volumes for private condominiums in 2025 are estimated at 14,000–15,000 transactions — broadly in line with long-run averages, indicating normalisation rather than exceptional activity.
Foreign buyer share: After the April 2023 ABSD hike, foreigner purchases fell to below 2% of total transactions. In 2025 this ticked up marginally to ~2.5%, suggesting some ultra-high-net-worth buyers have adjusted to the 60% ABSD. These tend to be transactions in the S$5M+ range where ABSD is a smaller proportional concern.
HDB Resale Market
The HDB resale market has been the most resilient segment throughout the cooling period.
- HDB Resale Price Index: Estimated +4–5% for full-year 2025, on top of +7% in 2024
- Median Cash-Over-Valuation (COV): Averaging S$30,000–S$50,000 in central and mature estates; minimal COV in non-mature estates
- Million-dollar HDB transactions: Approximately 1,000–1,100 units transacted above S$1M in 2025, maintaining the trajectory established in prior years
The HDB resale market benefits from the MOP funnel — as the large cohort of BTOs launched in 2018–2020 approaches MOP, a steady flow of HDB supply enters the resale market while simultaneously freeing those sellers to upgrade. This creates durable two-way activity.
Interest Rate Outlook and Its Impact on Property
The US Federal Reserve completed its hiking cycle in 2023 and began cutting in 2024. Singapore follows through the SIBOR/SORA transmission mechanism.
3-month SORA (as at early 2026): Approximately 2.5–3.0%
Typical floating-rate mortgage spread: 1.0–1.3% above 3M SORA = effective mortgage rate approximately 3.5–4.3%
Fixed rates (2-year fixes): Banks are offering in the range of 3.0–3.5% for the fixed period
This means borrowing costs remain elevated versus the near-zero rate environment of 2020–2021, but are stable and well below the peak 2023 rates. The property stress test rate remains anchored at 4%, meaning the qualifying bar has not changed materially from the rate peak.
The key interest rate variable to watch in 2026 is whether the Fed delivers further cuts, which would flow through SORA and allow fixed-rate mortgage spreads to tighten. Each 50bps reduction in mortgage rates adds roughly 5–8% to maximum borrowable loan at the same income, meaningfully expanding the buyer pool.
New Supply Pipeline
URA data shows approximately 20,000–24,000 private residential units in the pipeline (under construction or approved for construction) as at Q4 2025. Of these:
- ~8,000–10,000 are expected to receive TOP in 2026
- ~6,000–8,000 are expected in 2027
This supply entering the completed market will test rental absorption — the key question is whether tenant demand (expat, EP holders, returning Singaporeans) can match supply. Our base case is that supply will be digested in the RCR and CCR over 2–3 years, with mild softness in OCR from the concentration of BTO and new launch completions.
Land Sales: Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme
The H1 2026 GLS programme released in late 2025 maintains a disciplined supply posture:
- Approximately 5,000–6,500 private residential units across confirmed and reserve list sites
- Notable sites include further Lentor cluster parcels, a Marina Gardens Crescent site (prime location), and suburban sites in Jurong and Bedok
Developer appetite for GLS tenders has been moderate — not the frenzied bidding seen in 2020–2021, but not the withdrawn bids seen in late 2023. This suggests developers have visibility on absorption and are calibrating their pipelines accordingly.
Q1 2026 Outlook: Key Watchpoints
| Indicator | Current Status | Watch Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| URA Private PPI | +3–4% YoY | Above 8% YoY = possible policy response |
| HDB Resale PPI | +4–5% YoY | Above 8–10% YoY = policy attention |
| Foreign buyer share | ~2.5% | Above 5% sustained = policy review |
| Developer unsold inventory | ~18,000–20,000 units | Below 10,000 units = undersupply |
| 3M SORA | ~2.5–3.0% | Any sustained move above 3.5% = demand headwind |
| New GLS bids (land prices) | Moderate | Aggressive land bids = future price pressure |
Summary
Singapore's property market in Q1 2026 is in equilibrium: prices are rising modestly, volumes are healthy, supply is controlled, and the cooling measure stack remains in place but is not causing market distress. The conditions for a severe correction are not present — oversupply, runaway prices, and speculative leverage are all absent.
For buyers, the market offers reasonable value at current levels without urgency. For investors, the yield story is modest but stable. For the government, the playbook remains: intervene early if the data turns, stay the course if equilibrium holds.
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