Singapore's private residential property market closed 2025 in broadly stable condition. The URA private residential property price index ended Q4 2025 with a quarterly gain of approximately 2.9%, bringing the full-year advance to roughly 4.1% — contained and orderly compared to the 8.6% surge of 2021 and the 3.8% of 2023. HDB resale recorded its most active year by volume since 2022, with the million-dollar flat cohort expanding further. New launch absorption stayed resilient despite elevated pricing. This review reads the data and sets the context for 2026.
Private Residential: Price Index Movement
URA's flash estimate for Q4 2025 shows a quarterly increase of approximately 2.9% in the private residential price index. The full-year movement by region:
| Region | Q4 2025 QoQ | Full Year 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Core Central Region (CCR) | +1.8% | +2.2% |
| Rest of Central Region (RCR) | +3.2% | +4.6% |
| Outside Central Region (OCR) | +3.1% | +4.8% |
| Overall Private Residential | +2.9% | +4.1% |
The OCR and RCR outperformed the CCR across the full year — a continuation of the structural upgrade demand from HDB sellers and PRs who are channelling equity from the HDB resale market into private condos. The CCR underperformed partly because the 60% ABSD on foreigners (introduced April 2023) suppressed a buyer segment that historically supported luxury condo transactions.
Transaction Volumes: New Launches and Resale
Developer sales (new launches) for full-year 2025 are estimated at approximately 7,200 units, compared with 6,421 in 2024 and 10,705 in 2022. The recovery in volumes reflects more active launches in the second half of 2025, particularly Tampines (Parktown Residence completing its sales), the Lentor Hills estate, and a cluster of smaller boutique developments in Districts 9, 10, and 11.
Resale transactions in the private market came in at approximately 14,300 for full-year 2025 — flat to slight increase versus 2024's approximately 14,000. High prices compressed affordability and turnover, but structural demand from upgraders kept volumes from contracting.
HDB Resale: Volume Records and Price Benchmarks
HDB Resale Price Index rose approximately 4.5% across full-year 2025, accelerating from 4.0% in 2024. Q4 2025 showed the strongest quarterly gain (+2.0%) of the year.
Volume was the headline story: approximately 28,500 HDB resale transactions were registered for 2025, the highest since 2022. Demand was pulled by two converging forces — first-timers priced out of BTO in heavily oversubscribed towns (Tampines at 11.6x, Queenstown at 8x) turned to resale, and the cohort of 5-year MOP completions from 2019–2020 BTOs added supply that met eager buyers.
Million-dollar HDB transactions reached approximately 1,080 cases for full-year 2025, versus 479 in 2023 and 651 in 2024. The threshold is now crossed not only in premium mature towns (Bishan, Toa Payoh, Marine Parade) but routinely in Tampines and Queenstown executive maisonettes and large 5-room flats.
Rental Market: Cooling From the 2022–2023 Peak
Private residential rents peaked in late 2022 and have since moderated. By Q4 2025, the URA rental index for private non-landed properties was approximately 8–10% below the 2022 peak but still approximately 35% above pre-pandemic (Q4 2019) levels. Key readings by region:
- CCR: S$5.50–S$8.50 psf/month for typical 2-bedroom units
- RCR: S$4.80–S$6.50 psf/month
- OCR: S$3.80–S$5.20 psf/month
Gross rental yields for private condos averaged 3.0–3.5% across the non-CCR market in Q4 2025 — slightly below the 3.5–4.0% peak yields of 2022–2023 as both purchase prices and rents adjusted. CCR yields remained compressed at 2.5–3.0%.
Policy Environment: Stable Through 2025
No new property cooling measures were implemented in 2025, following the April 2023 ABSD increases and the August 2024 HDB loan LTV reduction (80% to 75%). MAS maintained the 4% interest rate stress test floor introduced in September 2022. The policy posture through 2025 was maintenance mode: no tightening, no relaxation.
The two policy developments most watched for 2026 are: (1) any adjustment to the ABSD regime for foreigners following the sharp drop in foreign buyer volumes post-April 2023, and (2) any guidance on HDB's build-to-order pipeline calibration for 2027–2028, which will affect resale supply dynamics.
2026 Outlook: Key Variables
Supply pipeline: URA data shows approximately 25,000 private residential units under construction or in the pipeline as of end-2025, with completions expected to run at 10,000–13,000 per year in 2026–2027. This is above the average annual take-up rate of approximately 9,000–11,000 units, suggesting some supply-side pressure.
Interest rates: 3-month SORA ended 2025 at approximately 2.8%, down from the 2023 peak of approximately 3.8%. Fixed mortgage rates for 2-year tranches are available in the 2.8–3.2% range. Further SORA easing in line with Fed rate cuts would reduce mortgage costs and support affordability.
HDB upgrader pipeline: Approximately 40,000–45,000 BTO flats completed their 5-year MOP in 2024–2025, with the cohort eligible to sell and upgrade or invest. This structural demand flow supports both the HDB resale market (as sellers exit) and the private condo market (as upgraders enter).
The central scenario for 2026 is a private residential price gain of 3–5%, moderated by the supply pipeline but supported by upgrader demand and SORA easing. The tail risk to the upside is any relaxation of ABSD or renewed foreign buyer activity; the tail risk to the downside is a global recession triggering unemployment and forced selling.
FAQ
Did 2025 see any cooling measures?
No. 2025 was the first calendar year since 2018 without any new cooling measure announcements. The April 2023 measures (60% ABSD for foreigners, 20%/30%/35% tiers for Singapore Citizens, PRs, and foreigners respectively on subsequent purchases) remained in effect throughout 2025.
Are private condo prices overvalued relative to HDB?
The gap between HDB resale prices and private condo prices narrowed through 2021–2025, as HDB resale appreciated faster (+34% from 2020 to 2025) than private (+28% over the same period). For many upgrade scenarios — particularly 5-room HDB to OCR 2-bedroom private condo — the equity bridge is now a realistic sum for households that bought HDB before 2018. The relative value case for the private market improved as the HDB-to-private price gap compressed.
How many HDB million-dollar transactions occurred in 2025?
Approximately 1,080 cases — a record, up from 651 in 2024. The transactions spanned not only traditionally premium estates like Bishan, Queenstown, and Marine Parade but also Tampines and Bukit Merah, reflecting how broad the resale price appreciation has been across mature towns.
Get personalised property advice
Buying, selling or investing in Singapore property?
Whether you're a first-time buyer, an upgrader or an investor, our specialists can help you make a confident, well-informed decision.
- No-obligation consultation with a qualified specialist
- Data-driven insights on pricing, timing and financing
- Network of experienced agents ready to act when you are
Free consultation · No obligation · Response within 24 hours