Singapore's HDB resale market entered 2026 in a materially different position from the previous three years. After a period in which annual price growth peaked at 10.4% (2021) and remained elevated through 2022–2024, the data from Q4 2025 marks a turning point: the Resale Price Index (RPI) has gone flat.
For buyers who spent the last few years priced out or outbid, this shift matters. For sellers who were counting on continued appreciation to fund their next purchase, it requires recalibration.
The Q4 2025 Data: What the Numbers Say
HDB released Q4 2025 flash estimates in January 2026 and confirmed the data in February. The headline finding:
- Q4 2025 RPI: 203.6 — essentially unchanged from Q3 2025's 203.7
- This is the first quarter where the RPI has not risen since Q1 2020 (the early COVID period)
- Full-year 2025 price growth: 2.9% — down sharply from 9.7% in 2024 and 8.2% in 2023
The deceleration is not a single-quarter blip. The trajectory has been one of progressively slowing growth since the peak in 2021:
| Year | HDB Resale Price Growth (Annual) |
|---|---|
| 2021 | +10.4% |
| 2022 | +10.3% |
| 2023 | +8.2% |
| 2024 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | +2.9% |
The 2024 spike interrupted what looked like a smoothing trend, partly driven by a very strong first half. The full-year 2025 reversal to 2.9% — and the flat Q4 — suggests the underlying trend of price moderation is real.
Transaction Volume: A Sharper Drop
While prices have softened gradually, transaction volume fell more sharply in Q4 2025. HDB recorded approximately 5,129 resale transactions in Q4 2025, down 18.8% compared to the same period in 2024 (Q4 2024: ~6,314 cases). This marks the second consecutive quarter with a double-digit year-on-year percentage decline.
The Q4 drop is partly seasonal (December is typically slow), but the magnitude is notable. For the full year 2025, total resale transactions are estimated at approximately 25,000 — broadly in line with 2023 but below the 2022 peak.
Lower transaction volume with flat prices signals a market where sellers are not yet cutting prices meaningfully, but buyers are hesitating. The standoff is likely to resolve in 2026 as supply increases.
Why Prices Are Cooling: The MOP Pipeline
The single most structurally important factor in 2026 is the wave of HDB flats completing their 5-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) and becoming eligible for resale.
In 2026, approximately 13,480 HDB units will reach MOP — up roughly 93% from approximately 6,970 units in 2025. This is the largest annual MOP cohort in recent years, directly expanding the supply of resale-eligible units.
Not all MOP-completing units will immediately list for sale. Many owners intend to upgrade to private property, which means they will first sell their HDB flat — adding resale listings. Others will hold or rent out the flat. But the directional effect on resale supply is clearly expansionary.
Where the MOP units are concentrated: The cohort is heavily weighted toward non-mature estates — Punggol, Sengkang, Tengah, and Sembawang — which saw a surge in BTO completions around 2020–2021. Buyers in these estates will face relatively more supply pressure than those in mature estates like Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, and Toa Payoh.
What This Means for Buyers
The shift from a seller's market to a more balanced one creates genuine opportunities for 2026 buyers that were largely absent in 2022–2024.
More negotiating room. The era of HDB flats selling in days with multiple cash-over-valuation (COV) offers well above S$50,000–S$100,000 appears to be easing. Buyers now have more time to assess options and more leverage in negotiations.
COV is compressing. COV — the premium paid above HDB's valuation — remains positive but has been declining in many estates. Buyers in non-mature estates with heavy MOP supply are best positioned to negotiate.
Longer transaction timelines. With flats sitting on market slightly longer, buyers can be more deliberate. This is a meaningful improvement in quality of life for buyers who were previously pressured into rushed decisions.
Realistic price expectations. Sellers who expected to achieve 2024 pricing are adjusting. For buyers waiting for a correction rather than just a slowdown, the data shows moderation rather than decline — prices are not falling, they have simply stopped rising.
What This Means for Sellers
Pricing strategy matters more. Overpriced listings are sitting. In 2022–2023, almost anything sold quickly. In 2026, accurate pricing from day one is essential for timely sale.
The upgrade window is narrowing slightly. Sellers who planned to sell at the peak and upgrade to private property must now weigh that private property prices in OCR and RCR have also moderated in certain segments. The differential is not dramatically worse than 2024, but the buffer is thinner.
Timing relative to the MOP wave. If you intend to sell a flat that completed MOP recently, 2026 may face stronger competition from similar recently-MOP units in the same estate than 2025 did. Listing early in the year (before the full MOP cohort hits market) may offer a modest advantage.
Million-Dollar Flats: Still Present but Less Frequent
The "million-dollar HDB flat" phenomenon continues but has moderated. In 2024, record volumes of flats changed hands above S$1 million. In H2 2025 and into 2026, the frequency has declined as:
- Premium resale pricing has normalised in many areas
- Supply in mature estates (where most million-dollar flats transact) is expanding modestly
- Buyers are increasingly resistant to paying more than S$1.1M–S$1.2M for resale HDB in all but the most exceptional units (large format, high floor, premium views in Bishan, Queenstown, Buona Vista)
The S$1M threshold remains a psychological anchor, and transactions above it continue — but the expectation of easy million-dollar sales across mature estates has receded.
FAQ
Is now a good time to buy an HDB resale flat?
A flat Q4 2025 RPI and rising supply from the MOP pipeline suggest buyers are in a more favourable position in 2026 than at any point since 2020. Whether timing works for you depends on your circumstances — but the market direction is more supportive of buyers than it was in 2022–2024.
Will HDB resale prices fall in 2026?
The data does not currently support a price decline scenario. The flat Q4 reading reflects moderation, not deterioration. Prices are more likely to remain flat to marginally positive in 2026, with differentiation by estate and flat type. Significant price falls would require a macro trigger (rate spike, policy tightening) not currently in evidence.
Should I sell my HDB flat now or wait?
If you are upgrading to private property, the relative timing matters more than the absolute HDB price. A lower HDB resale price paired with softer private property entry prices may net out similarly to 2024. Individual circumstances and your target private property segment should drive this decision.
Summary
The HDB resale market has entered 2026 in its first genuine period of price stability since before the pandemic boom. The flat Q4 2025 RPI, moderating annual growth of 2.9%, falling transaction volumes, and the largest MOP cohort in years all point in the same direction: supply is catching up, and buyer leverage is returning.
For sellers, realistic pricing is the new imperative. For buyers, 2026 represents the best entry window since 2020 in terms of negotiating position — even if prices themselves have not dropped.
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